Kim+Knowlton+et+al.+(2004)

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Kim Knowlton et al. (2004) “Assessing Ozone-Related Health Impacts Under a Changing Climate,” //Environmental Health Perspectives//


 * CostelloeKuehnBrandon:**

From Kim Knowlton’s blog: I’m Senior Scientist on NRDC’s Global Warming and Health Project. I work with the Health and Environment Program on communicating the health impacts of global warming, and also on advocating for public health strategies to prepare for and prevent these impacts. My research has looked at heat- and ozone-related mortality and illnesses as well as possible connections between climate, pollen, allergies and asthma. I attended Cornell University and Hunter College/CUNY, and received a doctorate in public health from Columbia University, where I was a postdoctoral research scientist before joining NRDC, and where I’m currently Assistant Clinical Professor in the Department of Environmental Health Sciences.
 * CroninAndrew:**

The article points out a few important pieces of background data. First it tells us that numerous studies link ozone to respiratory conditions that lead to hospital admission. We are also told that ozone levels are highest in the summer months when sunlight and temperature levels are increased. Temperatures of 90 degrees Fahrenheit and above have been strongly linked to ground level O3 production. We are also informed of the fact that summer heat waves and high O3 days are current health stressors in the New York Metropolitan area. Knowing this information might lead one to arrive at the conclusion that higher global temperatures would lead to higher ozone levels and consequently higher mortality rates due to ozone. This is what the article//,// //Assessing Ozone-Related Health Impacts under a Changing Climate//, seeks to prove. One of the strengths of this article is that it does an excellent job of synergizing data from both regional and global models. It is a something that is clearly a good idea; however, it is rarely done. One of the weaknesses of the article is that it suggests a more pessimistic climate scenario than what is likely to happen. The article fails to consider changes in technology and other efforts to curb global emissions. But the article does point out possible errors with its conclusions, the article even states that it points towards a “possible (although pessimistic) trajectory into the future”.

Overall this was an enlightening article. The final conclusion of the article is that “The results of the integrated O 3 health impacts assessment suggest that changes in climate alone resulting from growth in greenhouse gas emissions could cause a 4.5% increase in the number of summer O 3 -related deaths across the New York metropolitan region by the 2050s.” The study concluded that in some cases O3 doesn’t necessarily have a linear relationship with NOx due to NOx combining with O3 to form new compounds. They also conclude that an increased population will increase mortality rates from O3 more than climate change will. This gives even more clout to the argument that areas with higher populations will be worse for those suffering with respiratory conditions then areas with lower population. It may be useful to note this as we move further in our studies.


 * CullumMichelle:

DasDoug:

FortunKim:

KennerAli:

MarkowitzKathryn:

RichmanAlexander:**

Kim Knowlton is senior Scientist on NRDC’s Global Warming and Health Project. The other authors in this article hold PhDs and are too concerned with the environmental hazards. Joyce E. Rosenthal is in academia, works a Columbia, and belongs to the National Center for Environmental Research. Her primary focuses is Environmental Equity and Health. The article is very technical too and goes into great detail of how the simulation/experiment was conducted. Also, there is a lot of industry jargon such as Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System, and titration.

The topic that is addressed in this article is the rising concerns of 03**. “**Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of ozone episodes in future summers in the United States”(1) The article has incorporates an experiment of the 31-county New York metropolitan region and simulates the effects of ozone on these counties in 2050. “The objective of the present report is to assess and compare summer O3-related mortality in the 1990s and 2050s”(2). They ran two simulations one of which one would show the result in 03 levels as it related to natural climate change and the other form green house gasses.

“Counties with the highest percent increases in projected O3 mortality spread beyond the urban core into less densely populated suburban counties.”(2) This is particularly interesting because it shows that air space can grow and that an effect in one particular area can cause harm to another. The other area may have taken preemptive steps to protect its self, but pollution is like a vicious virus spreading. The experiment concluded that “Over the entire region, there was a projected median increase of 4.5% in O3 related deaths.” The sensitivity analysis showed that as there is a great influx in population there will be deaths. Also, the warmer the temperatures that may be caused are an effect of human pollution can attribute to more death.

In a study form the United kingdom there could be a “10% increase in premature mortality could result by 2020, with a 20% increase possible by 2050” I think that it would be interested to see how many people die over all as an effect to ozone because the percentiles might be misleading. But it was nice to see that the article drew from regional and global data. The article suggest that needs to be a focus on developing and implementing new technology to check for air pollution so there can be a better math model. But the data that is given from this article will be good to sue when doing our air study analysis.


 * SchmittWilliam:

SpartzJennifer:

SullivanPatrick:

WattersKevin**: